Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 211.600303 258.466270 316.993221 396.872699 505.353367 6.510877e+02 8.681226e+02
2025-05-18 156.352087 208.732463 282.760692 399.596686 588.793122 9.025465e+02 1.512284e+03
2025-05-25 124.419905 175.830977 254.656956 392.318695 646.463594 1.146277e+03 2.382812e+03
2025-06-01 103.218152 151.950247 231.260785 380.878460 687.719168 1.386324e+03 3.561724e+03
2025-06-08 88.103196 133.859228 211.895142 368.599998 719.807241 1.631525e+03 5.197053e+03
2025-06-15 83.131766 131.157098 217.844931 406.072606 879.806863 2.356992e+03 1.065075e+04
2025-06-22 75.173777 121.695131 209.036004 409.563153 959.835302 2.946607e+03 1.856063e+04
2025-06-29 69.749215 115.807759 205.729037 424.268023 1081.490313 3.882767e+03 3.840300e+04
2025-07-06 63.595815 107.570841 195.951586 420.216620 1144.949139 4.694703e+03 7.367625e+04
2025-07-13 61.789041 107.381802 203.014761 462.002484 1398.917938 7.210060e+03 3.271619e+05
2025-07-20 59.675806 106.221597 207.663565 499.349833 1675.970134 1.107153e+04 3.588880e+06
2025-07-27 57.112302 103.738557 208.739876 526.955466 1945.395699 1.660392e+04 5.116027e+10
2025-08-03 53.904608 99.678301 205.814443 543.252388 2197.022889 2.466536e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 50.491808 94.750358 199.889688 547.978223 2402.146926 3.535926e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 46.841541 88.848794 190.432410 537.072579 2505.850289 4.650785e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 43.378211 82.984502 180.134339 519.850903 2554.698125 5.851353e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 40.265347 77.596105 170.295304 501.430859 2581.049717 7.244997e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 39.963068 78.679212 178.354967 557.900602 3321.467965 1.999725e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 38.047651 75.716278 174.484198 563.197670 3629.887914 3.703231e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 36.760514 74.128517 174.355554 585.580237 4189.597075 1.039281e+06 NaN
2025-09-28 34.845981 70.804723 168.526957 579.402704 4418.415355 2.242276e+06 NaN
2025-10-05 34.694678 71.851292 176.225178 643.504267 5832.129105 1.430396e+08 NaN
2025-10-12 34.285706 72.195442 181.843921 701.501883 7527.717312 NaN NaN